The Exponential Curve: Understanding Human Advancement Acceleration
TL;DR A child born in 1700 inherited a world barely changed from their grandparents’; a child born today may see more transformation in 30 years than the 18th century saw in a century Moore’s Law drove ~50,000,000x transistor growth since 1971 - exponential growth is geometry, not hyperbole The transistor (1947) collapsed barriers to innovation: talent, equipment, communication, and capital AI is the latest accelerant on an already-exponential curve - the question is how we shape it, not whether it happens We are the first generation to face civilisation-scale choice at this speed A child born in 1700 inherited a world barely changed from their grandparents’. A child born in 1900 saw horses give way to automobiles, then aircraft, then space travel within a single lifetime. A child born today will witness more transformation in their first 30 years than humans experienced across the entire 18th century. ...