Economics

Dario Amodei has published a new essay, Policy on the AI Exponential, and it reads like the third act of a trilogy. Machines of Loving Grace made the case for what powerful AI could give us. The Adolescence of Technology catalogued what could go wrong. This one is about the machinery in between - the laws, agencies, and international arrangements that will decide which of those two essays turns out to be the better prediction. ...

TL;DR Cost is a design constraint, not an afterthought - model tier, context size, and deployment location are economic decisions Read the essays below in any order; start with Token Economics if you only have time for one Pairs with open-weight models and local inference guides Core essays Token Economics: Why the Cost of AI Isn’t Going Down GPU Servers vs AI API Credits: The Real Cost Breakdown Local AI vs Cloud AI: The Tradeoff Landscape in 2026 The AI Energy Crisis: Why Data Center Power Will Define the Next Decade Cerebras, Groq, SambaNova: The Inference Hardware Insurgents Adjacent The State of Open-Weight Models in 2026 - when open weights beat closed APIs on price Prompt Caching - the quiet latency and cost win The Token Efficiency Mindset - curating spend per conversation Is the $20 AI Subscription Era Over? We Are Learning to Buy Intelligence Related Reading AI Dev Tooling: A Reading Path for 2026 - canonical path for coding agents and stack decisions that depend on these cost constraints Home Agent Stack: From Mac Studio to Secured MCP Tools - building the hardware and software layer these economics govern Reasoning Models in 2026: What Changed and What Didn’t - why reasoning models carry a different cost profile than base models The Free Intelligence Era - the macro argument for where intelligence costs are headed

TL;DR Inference cost is architectural - generating each token requires loading massive models into GPU memory, and that fundamental constraint doesn’t disappear with scale or competition Despite Moore’s Law expectations, flagship model prices (Claude 3, GPT-4) have remained flat for 18+ months because demand growth absorbs any efficiency gains The true cost of using AI is 1.5 - 2.5x the raw token price once you factor in monitoring, retries, fine-tuning, and compliance overhead Providers convert efficiency gains into better features (longer context, faster inference, multimodal) rather than lower prices - you get more value per dollar, not fewer dollars Stop waiting for cheaper AI; treat token costs as fixed infrastructure spend and optimise usage with tools like prompt caching instead There’s a persistent myth in tech: AI will get cheaper. The argument is straightforward - Moore’s Law, scale effects, competition, and raw compute efficiency improvements mean costs should plummet. Yet in April 2026, Claude costs roughly what it did in 2024. GPT-4 Turbo pricing hasn’t moved in eighteen months. Gemini’s cost structure remains sticky. Why? ...

The views in this post are my own personal reflections on the data industry, written in my own time. They are not about any specific employer, team, or colleague, past or present, and do not draw on any non-public information. In 2026, the technical gap between Databricks and Snowflake has narrowed to a sliver. Both offer world-class serverless compute, both support Iceberg/Delta as first-class citizens, and both have integrated AI agents that can write SQL better than your average intern. ...

TL;DR Every time AI automates a specific task, the monetary value of doing that task falls - the scarce resource shifts from execution to the judgment of what is worth doing at all Historical precedent holds: Deep Blue did not kill professional chess, calculators did not kill accountants - automation raises the value of the thinking above the automated layer The new hierarchy of work puts judgment first (irreplaceable), direction second (human but scalable), and execution last (increasingly commodity) Judgment is constrained opinion - it requires trade-off awareness, skin in the game, pattern recognition, and willingness to be wrong - none of which AI can replicate The economic inversion means hiring shifts from paying for output to paying for prevention: the bad decisions not made, the features not built, the wrong paths not taken The automation paradox is quietly reshaping what we pay for. ...

Overview Bitcoin is the world’s first and largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, launched in January 2009. Unlike traditional fiat currency issued by central banks, Bitcoin is created, distributed, traded, and stored using a decentralized peer-to-peer network secured by a distributed ledger technology known as blockchain. Key Characteristics Decentralized - No central authority or government controls Bitcoin Limited Supply - Maximum of 21 million bitcoins will ever exist Transparent - All transactions are recorded on the public blockchain Immutable - Past transactions cannot be altered or reversed Secure - Protected by cryptographic proof-of-work consensus mechanism Educational Content Theory of Bitcoin | Introduction Series (June 2023) A comprehensive introduction to Bitcoin fundamentals and theory. ...